The U.S. economy will continue to expand for the rest of 2022, say the nation’s purchasing and supply executives in the Spring 2022 Semiannual Economic Forecast.

Manufacturing is Expected to Expand in 2022

Revenue to Increase 9.2%
Capital Expenditures to Increase 7.4%
Capacity Utilization Currently at 87.2%
Services is Expected to Expand in 2022
Revenue to Increase 4.9%
Capital Expenditures to Increase 6.2%
Capacity Utilization Currently at 91.0%

(Tempe, AZ) — Expectations for the remainder for 2022 are similar to those expressed in December 2021, despite continued inflation and geopolitical unrest.

These projections are part of the forecast issued by the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Business Survey Committees. The forecast was presented today by Timothy R. Fiore, CPSM, C.P.M., Chair of the ISM Manufacturing Business Survey Committee, and Anthony S. Nieves, CPSM, C.P.M., A.P.P., CFPM, Chair of the ISM Services Business Survey Committee.

Manufacturing Summary

Revenue for 2022 is expected to increase, on average, by 9.2 percent. This is 2.7 percentage points higher than the December 2021 forecast of 6.5 percent, and 4.9 percentage points lower than the 14.1-percent year-over-year increase reported for 2021. Sixty-three percent of respondents say that revenues for 2022 will increase, on average, 15.5 percent compared to 2021. Only seven percent say revenues will decrease (10 percent, on average), and 30 percent indicate no change. With an operating rate of 87.2 percent and projected increases in capital expenditures (7.4 percent), prices paid for raw materials (11.1 percent) and employment (3.2 percent) by the end of 2022, manufacturing continues its comeback from the turmoil of 2020 and 2021. “With 16 manufacturing sector industries expecting revenue growth in 2022, and 13 industries expecting employment growth in 2022 panelists forecast that recovery will continue the rest of the year. Sentiment in each sector was generally consistent with industry performance reports in the April 2022 Manufacturing ISM^® Report On Business^®, as well as the fall Semiannual Economic Forecast conducted in December,” says Fiore.

Sixteen of 18 industries report projected revenue increases for the rest of 2022, listed in order: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Transportation Equipment; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Furniture & Related Products; Chemical Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Machinery; Primary Metals; Wood Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Plastics & Rubber Products and Paper Products.

Services Summary

Respondents expect a 4.9-percent net increase in overall revenues, which is 0.6 percentage point higher than the 4.3-percent increase forecast in December 2021. Forty-eight percent of respondents say that revenues for 2022 will increase, on average, 13.4 percent compared to 2021. Meanwhile, 12 percent expect their revenues to decrease (11.4 percent, on average), and 40 percent indicate no change. “The services sector will continue to grow for the rest of 2022. Services companies are currently operating at 91 percent of normal capacity. Supply managers indicate that prices are expected to increase 9.6 percent over the year, reflecting increasing inflation. Employment is projected to increase 2.5 percent. Each of the 18 industries forecast increased revenues, up from the 16 industries that predicted increases in December 2021,” says Nieves.

All 18 industries expect revenue increases in 2022, listed in order: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Transportation & Warehousing; Mining; Wholesale Trade; Information; Accommodation & Food Services; Management of Companies & Support Services; Construction; Other Services; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Public Administration; Educational Services; Utilities; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Retail Trade; Health Care & Social Assistance; and Finance & Insurance.

OPERATING RATE

Manufacturing

Purchasing and supply executives report that their companies are operating, on average, at 87.2 percent of normal capacity, 1.5 percentage points lower than the figure reported in December 2021. The eight industries reporting operating capacity levels above the average rate of 87.2 percent — listed in order — are: Printing & Related Support Activities; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Wood Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Paper Products; Chemical Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products.

Services

Organizations are operating, on average, at 91 percent of normal capacity, according to Business Survey Committee respondents. This is 1.6 percentage points higher compared to December 2021. The 10 industries operating at capacity levels above the average rate of 91 percent — listed in order — are: Accommodation & Food Services; Finance & Insurance; Utilities; Educational Services; Retail Trade; Public Administration; Transportation & Warehousing; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; and Construction.

PRODUCTION CAPACITY

Manufacturing

Production capacity is expected to increase 5.8 percent in 2022; in December, panelists reported an increase of 3.5 percent for 2021 and projected an increase of 6.8 percent this year. Thirty-seven percent of respondents expect capacity increase of, on average, 17.4 percent; 5 percent expect decreases of, on average, 13 percent; and 58 percent expect no change. The 15 industries expecting production capacity increases for 2022 — listed in order — are: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Furniture & Related Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Transportation Equipment; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Wood Products; Chemical Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Machinery; Petroleum & Coal Products; and Paper Products.

Services

The capacity to produce products or provide services in the services sector is expected to increase 1.2 percent in 2022. This compares to an increase of 2.3 percent reported for 2021 and a December projection of a 3.3-percent increase for this year. Twenty-two percent of services respondents expect their capacity for 2022 to increase, on average, 12.4 percent, and 9 percent foresee capacity decreasing, on average, 15.6 percent. Sixty-nine percent expect no change in capacity. The 13 industries expecting production capacity increases for 2022 — listed in order — are: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Information; Transportation & Warehousing; Accommodation & Food Services; Wholesale Trade; Retail Trade; Construction; Educational Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; Utilities; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Public Administration; and Finance & Insurance.

PREDICTED CAPITAL EXPENDITURES — 2022 vs. 2021

Manufacturing

Survey respondents expect a 7.4-percent increase in capital expenditures in 2022, slightly lower than the 7.7-percent increase forecast by the panel in December. Thirty-two percent of respondents predict increased (on average, 33 percent) capital expenditures in 2022, 11 percent said their capital spending would decrease (on average, 27.3 percent), and 57 percent expect no change. The 12 industries expecting year-over-year increases in capital expenditures — listed in order — are: Transportation Equipment; Computer & Electronic Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Furniture & Related Products; Wood Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Machinery; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Paper Products; and Fabricated Metal Products.

Services

This year, services purchasing and supply executives expect a capital expenditures increase of 6.2 percent compared to 2021. The 40 percent of members expecting to spend more predict an average increase of 19.7 percent, 7 percent anticipate an average decrease of 22.2 percent, and 52 percent expect no change in capital expenditures in 2022. The 13 industries expecting an increase in capital expenditures — listed in order — are: Utilities; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Transportation & Warehousing; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Public Administration; Educational Services; Wholesale Trade; Mining; Information; Construction; Management of Companies & Support Services; Accommodation & Food Services; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; and Retail Trade.

PRICES — Changes Between End of 2021 and May 2022

Manufacturing

In the December forecast, respondents predicted an increase of 8.2 percent in prices paid during the first four months of 2022; they report prices increased by 11.4 percent. The 87 percent who say their prices are higher now than at the end of 2021 report an average increase of 13.2 percent, while less than 1 percent reported lower prices (by 10 percent, on average). The remaining share, slightly below 13 percent, indicated no change for the period. All 18 manufacturing industries reported an increase in prices paid for the first part of 2022, listed in order: Textile Mills; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Primary Metals; Machinery; Chemical Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Furniture & Related Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Transportation Equipment; Plastics & Rubber Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Fabricated Metal Products; Paper Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Wood Products; and Printing & Related Support Activities.

Services

Services respondents report that purchases during the first four months of this year cost an average of 8.7 percent more than at the end of 2021. This is 0.2 percentage point lower than the 8.9-percent increase predicted in December. Seventy-six percent of services respondents report that prices increased, on average, 11.5 percent; less than 1 percent report price decreases of, on average, 2.5 percent; and 24 percent indicate no change. All 18 industries reported an increase in prices paid in the first part of 2022, listed in order: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Wholesale Trade; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Construction; Mining; Public Administration; Transportation & Warehousing; Information; Utilities; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Management of Companies & Support Services; Accommodation & Food Services; Retail Trade; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; Educational Services; Other Services; and Finance & Insurance.

PRICES — Predicted Changes Between End of 2021 and End of 2022

Manufacturing

Survey respondents expect a year-over-year, net-average prices increase of 11.1 percent for 2022. With respondents reporting price increases of 11.4 percent through April 2022, prices are projected to ease slightly over the rest of the year. Seventy-nine percent of respondents project prices to increase, on average, 14.3 percent for the full year, 2 percent anticipate a decrease (4.9 percent, on average), and 19 percent expect no change. All 18 industries expect price increases for all of 2022, listed in order: Textile Mills; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Furniture & Related Products; Machinery; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Chemical Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Plastics & Rubber Products; Paper Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Transportation Equipment; Primary Metals; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; and Wood Products.

Services

This year, services respondents expect prices to increase, on average, 9.6 percent compared to the end of 2021. With respondents reporting an increase of 8.7 percent through April 2022, prices are projected increase over the rest of the year. Seventy-six percent of respondents anticipate increases of, on average, 12.8 percent; less than 1 percent expect decreases of, on average, 50 percent; and 24 percent do not expect prices to change. All 18 industries project price increases for all of 2022, listed in order: Management of Companies & Support Services; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Accommodation & Food Services; Information; Mining; Public Administration; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Construction; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Transportation & Warehousing; Utilities; Wholesale Trade; Health Care & Social Assistance; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Educational Services; Other Services; Retail Trade; and Finance & Insurance.

EMPLOYMENT

Employment – Predicted Changes Between End of 2021 and End of 2022

Manufacturing

ISM’s Manufacturing Business Survey Committee respondents forecast that sector employment in 2022 will increase 3.2 percent year over year. Thirty-eight percent of respondents expect employment to be, on average, 10.2 percent higher; 8 percent predict employment to decrease, on average, 8 percent; and 54 percent expect employment levels to be unchanged. The 13 industries projecting employment growth during 2022 — listed in order — are: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Transportation Equipment; Furniture & Related Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Machinery; Paper Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Computer & Electronic Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; and Chemical Products.

Services

Sector employment will increase 2.5 percent in 2022, according to the forecast of ISM’s Services Business Survey Committee respondents. For the remaining months of the year, 34 percent expect employment to increase, on average, 10.3 percent; 9 percent anticipate employment to decrease, on average, 11.2 percent; and 57 percent expect no change in employment levels. The 12 industries anticipating increases in employment — listed in order — are: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Transportation & Warehousing; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Management of Companies & Support Services; Construction; Wholesale Trade; Mining; Health Care & Social Assistance; Other Services; Utilities; and Educational Services.

BUSINESS REVENUES

Business Revenues Comparison — 2022 vs. 2021

Manufacturing

Increased revenues are expected this year, as purchasing and supply management executives predict an overall net increase of 9.2 percent compared to 2021. This is 2.7 percentage points higher than the 6.5-percent increase forecast in December, but 4.9 percentage points lower than the 14.1-percent year-over-year increase reported for 2021. Sixty-three percent of respondents say that revenues for 2022 will increase, on average, 15.5 percent; 7 percent say their revenues will decrease, on average, 10 percent; and 30 percent forecast no change. The 16 manufacturing industries expecting increases in revenue in 2022 — listed in order — are: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Transportation Equipment; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Furniture & Related Products; Chemical Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Machinery; Primary Metals; Wood Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Plastics & Rubber Products; and Paper Products.

Services

This year, services purchasing and supply management executives predict a net increase of 4.9 percent in sector business revenue compared to 2021. This is 0.6 percentage point higher than the 4.3-percent increase forecast in December, and 0.1 percentage point higher than the 4.8-percent increase reported for 2021. Forty-eight percent of respondents indicate revenues for 2022 will increase, on average, 13.4 percent; 12 percent say their revenues will decrease, on average, 11.4 percent; and 40 percent expect no change. All 18 services industries project revenue increases in 2022, listed in order: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Transportation & Warehousing; Mining; Wholesale Trade; Information; Accommodation & Food Services; Management of Companies & Support Services; Construction; Other Services; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Public Administration; Educational Services; Utilities; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Retail Trade; Health Care & Social Assistance; and Finance & Insurance.

SPECIAL QUESTION TOPIC No. 1: HIRING WORKERS TO FILL OPEN POSITIONS

We asked the panel, “In the past six months, has your organization had difficulty hiring workers to fill open positions?”

Respondents indicated:

SPECIAL QUESTION TOPIC No. 2: HIRING DIFFICULTIES

We asked the panel, “If ‘yes,’ what have you done to deal with these difficulties?”

Answer options:

• We raised wages (or used other forms of monetary compensation) to recruit new hires
• We didn’t hire/were not able to hire as many workers as we would have liked
• We didn’t have difficulty hiring because we weren’t trying to hire new workers
• We lowered our hiring standards
• Something else.

Respondents indicated:

SPECIAL QUESTION TOPIC No. 3: NO HIRING DIFFICULTIES

We asked the panel, “If you have not had difficulty hiring, why not?”

Answer options:

• We raised wages in order to attract the applicants we needed
• We didn’t have difficulty hiring because we weren’t trying to hire new workers
• The local labor market is not that tight; it was easy to find an ample supply of applicants
• We lowered our hiring standards
• Something else.

Respondents indicated:

SPECIAL QUESTION TOPIC No. 4: SUPPLY CHAIN PROBLEMS

We asked the panel, “Do you anticipate supply chain problems for the third quarter/fourth quarter to be better, same or worse?”

Respondents indicated:

SPECIAL QUESTION TOPIC No. 5: CAUSE OF SUPPLY CHAIN DISRUPTIONS

We asked the panel, “Are most of the supply chain disruptions in the manufacturing/services sectors due to foreign developments (for example, microchips or other foreign-sourced supplies) or to domestic developments (such as, port delays or lack of truck drivers or domestically produced supplies like steel or aluminum)?”

Respondents indicated:

SPECIAL QUESTION TOPIC No. 6: PANDEMIC-RELATED PRICE CHANGES

We asked the panel, “Relative to before the pandemic, are you changing prices more frequently?”

Manufacturing

• Yes, demand is changing more frequently than before the pandemic, so we can (6 percent)
• Yes, costs are changing more frequently than before the pandemic, so we must (42 percent)
• Yes, both (a) and (b) (35 percent)
• Yes, other reasons (3 percent)
• No (14 percent)

Services

• Yes, demand is changing more frequently than before the pandemic, so we can (7 percent)
• Yes, costs are changing more frequently than before the pandemic, so we must (34 percent)
• Yes, both (a) and (b) (22 percent)
• Yes, other reasons (3 percent)
• No (34 percent)

We asked the panel, “Relative to before the pandemic, are you more likely to pass through increases in costs to the customer as higher prices?

Manufacturing

• Yes, demand is higher now than before the pandemic, so we can (8 percent)
• Yes, our competitors are raising prices, so we can (11 percent)
• Yes, changes in costs are expected to be long term, so we must (38 percent)
• Yes, our margins are tighter now than they were before the pandemic, so we must (21 percent)
• Yes, for another reason (8 percent)
• No (14 percent)

Services

• Yes, demand is higher now than before the pandemic, so we can (6 percent)
• Yes, our competitors are raising prices, so we can (10 percent)
• Yes, changes in costs are expected to be long term, so we must (29 percent)
• Yes, our margins are tighter now than they were before the pandemic, so we must (18 percent)
• Yes, for another reason (7 percent)
• No (30 percent)

SPECIAL QUESTION TOPIC No. 7: WAR DISRUPTIONS TO SUPPLY CHAIN

We asked the panel, “Is the war in Ukraine disrupting your organization’s supply chain?”

Manufacturing

• Yes, it’s very disruptive (5 percent)
• Yes, it’s disruptive (15 percent)
• Yes, it’s somewhat disruptive (40 percent)
• No, it’s not disruptive (40 percent)

Services

• Yes, it’s very disruptive (9 percent)
• Yes, it’s disruptive (12 percent)
• Yes, it’s somewhat disruptive (28 percent)
• No, it’s not disruptive (51 percent)

SUMMARY

Manufacturing

• Operating rate is 87.2 percent of normal capacity.
• Production capacity is expected to increase 5.8 percent in 2022.
• Capital expenditures are expected to increase 7.4 percent in 2022.
• Prices paid increased 11.4 percent through April 2022.
• Prices of raw materials are expected to increase a total of 11.1 percent for all of 2022, indicating an expected decrease of 0.3 percentage point for the rest of the year.
• Manufacturing employment is expected to increase 3.2 percent in 2022.
• Manufacturing revenues are expected to increase 9.2 percent in 2022.
• The manufacturing sector is expected to grow in 2022.

Services

• Operating rate is 91 percent of normal capacity.
• Production capacity is expected to increase 1.2 percent in 2022.
• Capital expenditures are expected to increase 6.2 percent in 2022.
• Prices paid increased 8.7 percent through April 2022.
• Prices of raw materials are expected to increase a total of 9.6 percent for all of 2022, indicating expectations of continuing inflation.
• Services employment is expected to increase 2.5 percent in 2022.
• Services revenues are expected to increase 4.9 percent in 2022.
• The services sector is projected to grow in 2022.

About This Report

In addition to the forecast, the Manufacturing ISM^® Report On Business^® is issued monthly on the first business day of each month and is considered by many economists to be the most reliable near-term economic barometer available. It is reviewed regularly by top government agencies and economic business leaders. The report, compiled from responses to questions asked of approximately 900 purchasing and supply executives across the country, tracks industrial production, new orders, inventories, supplier deliveries, employment, buying policies and prices. Manufacturing Business Survey Committee responses are divided into the following NAICS code categories: Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Textile Mills; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Wood Products; Paper Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Petroleum & Coal Products; Chemical Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Primary Metals; Fabricated Metal Products; Machinery; Computer & Electronic Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Transportation Equipment; Furniture & Related Products; and Miscellaneous Manufacturing (including products such as Medical Equipment & Supplies, Jewelry, Sporting Goods, Toys & Office Supplies).

Covering the services sector, ISM^® debuted the Services ISM^® Report On Business^® in June 1998. The Services ISM^® Report On Business^® is released on the third business day of each month and is based on data received from purchasing and supply executives from 18 different Services industries across the country. The Services ISM^® Report On Business^® is diversified by NAICS, based on each industry’s contribution to gross domestic product (GDP). The Services Business Survey Committee responses are divided into the following NAICS code categories: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Mining; Utilities; Construction; Wholesale Trade; Retail Trade; Transportation & Warehousing; Information; Finance & Insurance; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Management of Companies & Support Services; Educational Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Accommodation & Food Services; Other Services (including Equipment & Machinery Repairing; Promoting or Administering Religious Activities; Grant making; Advocacy; and Providing Dry-Cleaning & Laundry Services, Personal Care Services, Death Care Services, Pet Care Services, Photofinishing Services, Temporary Parking Services, and Dating Services); and Public Administration. The report covers business activity, new orders, backlog of orders, new export orders, inventory change, inventory sentiment, imports, prices, employment, and supplier deliveries.

About Institute for Supply Management^®

Institute for Supply Management^® (ISM^®) serves supply management professionals in more than 90 countries. Its 50,000 members around the world manage about US$1 trillion in corporate and government supply chain procurement annually. Founded in 1915 as the first supply management institute in the world, ISM is committed to advancing the practice of supply management to drive value and competitive advantage for its members, contributing to a prosperous and sustainable world. ISM leads the profession through the ISM Report On Business^®, its highly regarded certification programs and the ISM^® Advance™ Digital Platform. This report has been issued by the association since 1931, except for a four-year interruption during World War II.

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The next Manufacturing ISM^® Report On Business^® featuring the May 2022 data will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET on Wednesday, June 1, 2022.

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