April 1, 2025 Mexico’s Answer to Tariff Chaos and Uncertainty

Despite tariffs, Mexico remains the strongest, most adaptable and most cost-effective manufacturing location for the North American market.

By Doug Donahue

Are you planning for the next quarter or the next decade?

For North American manufacturers, this question has never been more critical. As we again wait to see if, when, and on which products tariffs will be imposed, one thing remains certain: Despite tariffs, Mexico remains the optimal long-term manufacturing solution for companies seeking resilience, competitiveness and growth. But if you let the U.S. tariff or its ever-present threat keep you from looking at Mexico manufacturing, you’ll risk missing out on Mexico’s many advantages, which we’ll explore in detail in this article.

At current writing, we are waiting for another one-month delay to conclude, when the Trump administration is set to impose a 25% tariff on goods imported from Mexico. Even if the tariff is postponed again, the tariff threat remains and could rear its head at any moment. This is particularly true with USMCA set to sunset in 2026, with the assumptions there will be more negotiations on it.

If you’re leaning toward the more conservative route to see how things play out before commencing a Mexico strategy, consider that you may be waiting four years or more, rather than starting on the due diligence you’ll need to conduct before entering Mexico (more on that below).

You’ll keep waiting because the ever-present cloud of macroeconomic instability created by a potential tariff on Mexico serves the Trump administration’s interests. It’s an effective policy tool that the administration will continue to use to gain negotiating leverage on border security, immigration and trade policy. If you think waiting will help clarify the risks of Mexico, you will likely be disappointed.   

Tariffs Aren’t the Whole Story — Not Even Close

But this article isn’t about tariffs. They aren’t the difference maker, because the fundamentals of Mexico’s competitive position remain stronger than ever, with or without tariffs. Despite global manufacturing’s chaos and uncertainty there is one risk-free thing we urge you to do now with respect to Mexico – start your due diligence. This will give you an advantage over the companies that decide to wait.

The High Cost of Waiting

Many companies make the mistake of waiting for “perfect” conditions—but by the time conditions look perfect, the opportunity is gone.

Here’s the reality manufacturers should be considering, when mapping out a Mexico manufacturing strategy:

• If you start today, you’re still 12-18 months away from full production in Mexico.
• If you delay or wait for the “right time,” that timeline may stretch to 36-48 months—and by then, competitors will have claimed key labor, supply chains and customer relationships.
• The longer you wait, the more expensive and competitive Mexico will become—just as happened with China.

Mexico is not just a backup plan—it is a strategic, long-term manufacturing base.

Why Mexico Still Makes Sense: More Than a Tariff Story

Starting your investigation into Mexico is imperative because Mexico’s key longterm advantages remain obvious, including:

• Labor access and long-term cost-competitiveness: Mexico’s young, growing workforce contrasts sharply with the aging populations of the U.S., Europe, and China, where labor shortages are driving up wages. Mexico is one of the few countries in the world (India is another) with a wide “population pyramid” that widens as you go to the base, because the country has a relatively young population.
• Global trade connectivity: Mexico has more free trade agreements (FTAs) than China, India, or Brazil—over 50 agreements with nations worldwide, giving manufacturers long-term trade resilience.
• Nearshore benefits: Proximity to the U.S. reduces shipping costs, improves lead times and simplifies customer collaboration.

One of Mexico’s lesser-known strategic advantages—the free-floating peso—gives manufacturers an often-overlooked hedge against rising costs, including tariffs.

Free-Floating Peso: The Built-In Advantage That Offsets Tariffs

For manufacturers, Mexico’s currency—the peso—offers a built-in advantage that’s rarely discussed in mainstream headlines. Because the currency is tied to market factors (versus being controlled by the government), if Mexico’s competitiveness decreases, the peso devalues to KEEP it competitive. This is a unique advantage among low-cost manufacturing locations. In fact, a tariff may not ultimately be effective against Mexico, because of the free-floating capabilities of its currency. For instance, when President Trump announced in 2015 that he was entering the race, the Peso adjusted and Mexico’s competitive strengths remained in place.

Here’s why this matters:

• Manufacturers pay wages and operational costs in pesos, but generate revenue and sales in dollars (especially for U.S. exports).
• As the peso devalues relative to the dollar, operational costs in dollar terms decrease, offsetting tariff impacts and insulating companies from rising domestic wages and inflationary pressures.
• This currency advantage allows Mexico-based operations to remain cost-effective even in fluctuating global markets and shifting trade environments.

In short, while tariffs might raise costs on paper, Mexico’s free-floating peso often counters that impact—something no Asian competitor, including China, can offer.

More of Mexico’s Advantages

Mexico is likely to remain America’s largest trading partner thanks to these additional reasons:

• Competitive wages in peso terms, increasingly cost-effective relative to China and U.S. labor rates.
• World-class industrial hubs and infrastructure, especially in Guanajuato, Zacatecas, and Central Mexico, which have the additional advantage of being far from competitive border towns.
• Convenience to U.S. markets, enabling easy executive and technician visits, as well as same-day or next-day delivery for many industries.

For manufacturers looking at ways to improve their longterm competitive advantage, Mexico is the logical next move.

Take Action – But What Exactly?

If you decide to start now, what should your next step be? We are happy to meet with you and have a conversation on what your due diligence process should look like, so you can properly evaluate the fit of Mexico manufacturing for your company. Based on similar experiences with our clients, this is what that due diligence timeline looks like:

Mexico Manufacturing Due Diligence Evaluation

Duration: 12–18 months
Cost: Entrada’s guidance is provided at no cost to you (other than travel-related expenses)

Phase 1: Production Cost and Tariff Analysis

• Calculate Mexico production costs with and without tariffs, based on your harmonized tariff classification

Phase 2: Mexico Site Visits

• Visit facilities in different regions of Mexico that deploy a variety of Mexico manufacturing models

Phase 3: Capital Costing

• Evaluate capital costs to startup in Mexico and map out a launch timeline

After this 12- 18-month due diligence process, you’ll have a clear, data-driven roadmap for launching your own Mexico production, and first-hand insight into on-the-ground realities of Mexican manufacturing.

The Future Belongs to the Bold—Will You Lead or Follow?

Most companies will sit on the sidelines, paralyzed by tariffs, chaos and uncertainty. Will you?

If you start today, you’ll be ahead of those still stuck in endless analysis 18 months from now—and you’ll be positioned to dominate the next decade of manufacturing.

At Entrada Group, we de-risk your decision with a 24-month exit guarantee, meaning you can act now without long-term commitment or uncertainty.

If you want to start your Mexico due diligence process or have any Mexico manufacturing questions, don’t hesitate to contact me:

About the Author:
Possessing true global expertise, Doug Donahue brings exceptional leadership and manufacturing support expertise to Guanajuato’s Life Innovation & Technologies Cluster. He heads the Manufacturing and Foreign Direct Investment focus areas within the cluster. For the last 20 years, Doug has been the co-managing partner of Entrada Group, a leading shelter services provider that guides global manufacturers in setting up and running production in Mexico. Prior to co-founding Entrada Group, Doug spent 11 years in Mexico City, most recently as the director of Ohio’s Mexico Trade Office. Prior to that, Doug was responsible for start-up and management of the Mexican subsidiary of Test-Rite International, a publicly listed Taiwanese trading company.

Read more from the author:

Electronics Manufacturers Can’t Compete without Mexico | Industry Today, Aug. 14, 2018

Medical Device Manufacturers Looking To Move Production From China Have Options | Forbes, Nov. 15, 2022

Subscribe to Industry Today