April 21, 2026 US M&A Stays Resilient Despite Geopolitical Volatility

M&A may be slowing in some regions amid heightened geopolitical and energy uncertainty, but investor appetite for US assets remains strong.

By Dan Phelan, SVP of Sales at Datasite

Global M&A is moving into a period of thoughtful, strategic activity. Rising energy prices, persistent trade uncertainty, and geopolitical volatility are complicating valuation and long‑term forecasting. In many markets, this has placed deal activity into a holding pattern as boards demand greater confidence around risk, returns, and durability.

Yet demand for US companies, especially in manufacturing, industrial, transport, and defense‑adjacent sectors, remains resilient. This is evident on Datasite, which facilitates about 19,000 new deals annually. In 2025, new global industrial, transport, and defense deals, especially asset sales, purchases and mergers on Datasite, increased 8% year over year. That momentum strengthened in early 2026, with first‑quarter activity up 18% compared with the same period last year.

Geopolitics has become a structural deal consideration

That resilience doesn’t mean dealmakers are ignoring risk; it means they’re raising the bar for conviction and diligence. As a result, the threshold for action is high.

Geopolitical risk is no longer episodic. It’s structural, and it’s affecting board level M&A discussions. Conflict, sanctions, export controls, and industrial policy shifts directly affect cost structures, access to inputs, and long‑term asset viability. In regions where these risks are elevated, deal timelines are stretching. Buyers are taking a more conservative approach to underwriting, while sellers are cautious about bringing assets to market amid uncertain operating assumptions.

Energy volatility is reinforcing discipline

Alongside geopolitics, energy pricing is also affecting M&A confidence. For energy‑intensive sectors, sustained price volatility can undermine margin predictability and complicates multi‑year investment theses. From a board perspective, this does not eliminate deal appetite, but it materially changes the calculus.

Buyers are prioritizing assets where energy exposure can be mitigated through scale, efficiency, automation, or geography. Transactions that rely on stable or low‑cost energy assumptions are facing increased scrutiny or deferral.

In some markets, higher energy costs are delaying transactions. In others, they are accelerating consolidation as companies seek operating leverage and cost absorption. This divergence is a key reason global M&A appears uneven.

US assets continue to command attention

Against this backdrop, US assets stand out. Datasite data shows sustained momentum in industrial, transport, and defense‑related deal activity, underscoring continued global interest in US companies despite broader macro uncertainty.

The US offers relative regulatory stability, deep capital markets, and a large end‑market. Acquiring US manufacturing and industrial assets allows buyers to localize production, reduce tariff exposure, and shorten supply chains, all critical advantages as geopolitical events disrupt trade flows and logistics.

Equally important, many US assets combine physical manufacturing capability with automation, data, and operational visibility. In an environment defined by rising energy costs and execution risk, those characteristics support both resilience and long‑term value creation.

Consolidation continues where it strengthens control

While uncertainty is slowing some categories of dealmaking, consolidation is continuing in sectors where M&A directly enhances operational control. Some manufacturing companies are using acquisitions to secure capacity, stabilize supplier networks, and eliminate single points of failure.

Boards are supporting targeted transactions in areas such as specialty machining, tooling, testing, logistics, or automation, that address bottlenecks, to ensure operational certainty.

This mirrors broader industry priorities where manufacturers that invest in visibility and control are better positioned to manage disruption. M&A has become a strategic mechanism for achieving that control.

And as dealmakers use M&A to improve control, many are also rethinking when to move—shifting from waiting out uncertainty to acting when the strategic logic is strong.

From market timing to strategic conviction

Another shift is how senior leadership teams view timing.

In 2025, and now into 2026, dealmaking has moved away from waiting for macro clarity and toward acting on strategic conviction. Datasite deal formation data shows new global deals rose 9% in 2025 and are up again early in 2026, despite continued uncertainty around energy prices and geopolitics.

This reflects a recognition at the board level that volatility is not temporary. Delaying indefinitely carries its own risk, particularly when supply‑chain resilience, market access, or capacity constraints are at stake.

In this context, today’s M&A market is best understood as disciplined selectivity, not disengagement.

Implications for global M&A flows

Looking ahead, global M&A is likely to remain uneven. Regions facing sustained energy volatility, trade instability, or geopolitical exposure may continue to see slower deal execution. At the same time, markets that offer predictability, scale, and strategic relevance, most notably the US, should continue to attract capital.

For boards and executive teams, the implication is clear: risk is being repriced, not avoided. Capital is flowing toward assets that strengthen control, resilience, and proximity to demand.

In an environment shaped by energy uncertainty and geopolitical complexity, successful M&A strategies will be those aligned with long‑term operating realities. Dealmaking is not on hold. It is becoming more selective, more strategic, and more tightly linked to enterprise resilience and value creation.

About the Author:
With over two decades of experience in software sales, revenue generation, and managing complex sales processes, Dan Phelan is Senior Vice President of Sales, Southwest/TOLA at Datasite, where he is responsible for setting and executing the sales strategy across the region. Before joining Datasite in 2006, he held sales roles at Information Management Group (IMG) and Infotrieve. Dan holds a BA in Business Administration with a focus on Marketing & Finance from Augustana College.

Subscribe to Industry Today