October 13, 2026 What Metro Job Growth Means for Manufacturers

Metro job growth is reshaping the manufacturing workforce as blue-collar jobs expand in fast-growing Sun Belt and Mountain West labor markets.

By Ted Abernathy, Managing Partner, Economic Leadership

America’s employment map is changing. The metros gaining the most jobs are not growing in just one sector or one type of work. Many are adding professional workers, skilled tradespeople, production employees, transportation workers and service workers at the same time. That matters for manufacturers because where people and jobs are growing can help identify expanding labor pools, but it also shows where competition for skilled workers is likely to intensify.

Key Takeaways

• Job growth is shifting toward fast-growing Sun Belt and Mountain West metros.
• Blue-collar growth is occurring alongside broader population and business expansion, not in isolation.
• Manufacturers are competing for many of the same workers as construction, transportation, logistics and other industries.
• A strong regional labor market can provide a larger workforce while also creating more competition for skilled talent.

The Geography of Job Growth is Shifting

Economic Leadership’s Metro Momentum report examined nearly 800 occupations across the 150 largest U.S. metropolitan areas. Between 2015 and 2025, those metros added more than 12 million jobs, accounting for nearly 75% of all U.S. job growth during the decade.

White-collar occupations accounted for the largest share of the increase, adding about 7 million jobs. But blue-collar employment also grew substantially, adding 2.7 million jobs, while service occupations added another 2.3 million.

The geography of that growth is important. Many of the same Sun Belt and Mountain West metros appear near the top of the rankings across multiple types of employment. The strongest-performing places generally combined population growth, business investment and increasingly diverse employment bases.

For manufacturers, that distinction matters.

Blue-collar growth is part of a larger economic story

For this analysis, blue-collar employment includes manufacturing and production workers along with skilled trades, construction, maintenance, transportation, material-moving and other hands-on occupations.

Over the past decade, blue-collar employment grew fastest in many of the same metros experiencing strong population and business growth. Austin, typically thought of as a technology center, led the 2015–2025 percentage growth rankings with blue-collar job growth of 62.9%, followed by Provo at 54.8%, Boise at 49.8%, Port St. Lucie at 48.4% and Huntsville at 45.5%.

The same pattern holds when we narrow the lens to 2019–2025. Austin’s blue-collar employment increased 33.2% between 2019 and 2025, Huntsville grew 26.7% and Port St. Lucie grew 24.8%. Nine of the nation’s 20 fastest-growing metros for blue-collar jobs during this period were in Florida or Texas.

A fast-growing metro is not automatically a strong manufacturing location. Manufacturers still need to look beyond manufacturing employment alone and understand the broader labor market.

A maintenance technician may have opportunities in manufacturing, utilities, transportation or construction. A truck driver or material-moving worker can move among multiple industries. Engineers and managers are competing in an even broader labor market.

In other words, manufacturers are competing for workers with the entire regional economy.

Strong markets create opportunity and competition

Fast-growing metros can offer manufacturers a larger and expanding workforce, more business activity and stronger supplier and service networks. At the same time, growth creates competition for many of the same workers manufacturers need.

That makes population trends, housing, infrastructure, commuting patterns and cost of living part of the workforce discussion. Metro Momentum found that many growing destinations also offer lower housing costs, lower taxes or available land compared with higher-cost markets, helping them attract both workers and businesses.

What will reshape manufacturing location decisions next?

Manufacturing location decisions are being reshaped by forces that extend well beyond labor availability. No one has a crystal ball, but the more accurately we can anticipate change, the better we can plan and act.

• Energy and infrastructure capacity will become a more important location-defining advantage. Reliable and affordable electricity, available megawatts, transmission, water, natural gas, transportation and developable industrial sites will increasingly determine where manufacturing can grow.
• Security economics is rapidly reshaping supply chains. Reshoring, nearshoring, defense, semiconductors, critical minerals, pharmaceuticals, energy equipment and other strategically important industries will continue shifting investment toward domestic and allied-country production. The United States’ global priority is shifting from maximum efficiency alone toward a balance of resilience, security and efficiency.
• Automation and artificial intelligence will redefine manufacturing competitiveness. Manufacturing output will become less dependent on large pools of low-cost labor and more dependent on workers with specific skills: technology specialists, technicians, engineers, data analysts, automation experts and management talent. U.S. manufacturing competitiveness should continue to improve, but the gap between highly productive plants and everyone else is also likely to widen.
• Manufacturing will disperse—but unevenly. Population and economic activity are already redistributing among metros and regions. The US has over 900 metropolitan and micropolitan regions and almost 2,000 rural counties that are not in either. Metro Momentum found that nearly 75% of U.S. job growth from 2015 to 2025 occurred in these 150 metros. Manufacturing will increasingly follow places that combine available land, infrastructure, workforce, and affordability. Rapid change will create new winners outside historical industrial centers, including places that may previously have been bypassed entirely.
• The final change worth watching is the growing importance of a community’s ability to act. Not all places—even densely populated ones—are competing on an even playing field. Manufacturers appear to be increasingly distinguishing between communities that merely possess assets and those that can deliver them—sites, power, housing, workforce training, permitting, infrastructure and political and community support. Institutional capacity and collaboration are becoming a more important part of the location equation.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why do metro job trends matter to manufacturers?

Manufacturers recruit from the broader regional labor market. Growth in construction, transportation, logistics, utilities and other industries can expand a regional economy while also increasing competition for many of the same workers manufacturers need.

Does fast job growth automatically make a metro a strong manufacturing location?

No. Job growth is one indicator of labor-market momentum. Manufacturers still need to consider the availability of specific occupations and skills, wages, infrastructure, sites, supply chains and other operating requirements.

What should manufacturers look at beyond manufacturing employment?

Population and labor-force trends, occupational growth, competing demand for workers, commuting patterns, housing, cost of living and infrastructure can all affect a company’s ability to attract and retain employees.

Geography has always played a significant role in manufacturing location decisions, from access to natural resources and transportation networks to proximity to supply chains. Today, skilled labor is an increasingly critical factor, and that talent is concentrating in metros that have not always been considered traditional blue-collar centers. Understanding where the deep talent pools of the future are forming will give manufacturers considering expansion or a new location an advantage.

About the Author:
Ted Abernathy is Managing Partner of Economic Leadership, a consultancy focused on economic competitiveness, workforce, strategy and future trends. Over his 44-year career, he has led city, county and regional economic development organizations and an economic policy think tank and is the principal author of nearly 125 reports on economic and workforce development, technology, leadership and future trends. He currently serves as economic advisor to the Council of State Chambers.

Read more from the author:

2026 Outlook: Staying Focused in a Year of Uncertainty | Wake County Economic Development, January 14, 2026

Manufacturing Remains Critical to the State’s Economy | NC Chamber, October 5, 2016

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